Feb 2016 Fiscal Update – Lower Earnings Ahead

Wall Street Cuts S&P 500 Estimates

One reason investors have made so much money in the last 7 years is because the stock market has done well since the great recession. The total annual returns for the S&P 500 stock index have been positive every year from 2009 to 2015 inclusive. But recent earnings reports suggest that the bull market cycle may be coming to an end soon. 🙁

Seven banks recently reduced targets for the U.S. stock market for 2016. This comes after the 3rd straight quarterly earnings contraction of the S&P 500, which hasn’t happened since 2009. Based on historical data negative earnings growth of the stock market often comes with a high probability of an economic recession.


There are even some analysts who believe America’s economy is already in a recession, much like Canada’s was last year. But we won’t know for sure until the GDP numbers come out months from now. Despite the weak earnings data however, North American stock markets still managed to end the month of February pretty much flat. But this could be the beginning of a down turn.

*Side Incomes:

  • Part-Time Work = $1100
  • Freelance pay = $400
  • Dividends = $600
  • Interest = $200
*Discretionary Spending:
  • Fun = $200
  • Vacation = $500
  • Debt Interest = $1400

*Net Worth: (MoM)16-02-net-worth-january-volatile

  • Assets: = $930,600 total (+5,100)
  • Cash = $7,500 (+2000)
  • Stocks CDN =$102,000 (+4800)
  • Stocks US = $68,500 (-1500)
  • RRSP = $62,800 (-200)
  • MICs = $15,800
  • Home = $263,000
  • Farms = $411,000
  • Debts: = $494,600 total (-3800)
  • Mortgage = $190,000 (-500)
  • Farm Loans = $196,900 (-500)
  • Margin Loan CDN = $28,500 (-1000)
  • Margin Loan US = $29,600 (-1400)
  • TD Line of Credit = $21,600  (-400)
  • CIBC Line of Credit = $10,000
  • HELOC = $18,000

*Total Net Worth = $436,000 (+$8,900 / +2.1%)
All numbers above are in $CDN. Conversion rate used: 1.00 CAD = 0.74 USD

The extra shift in my part-time job is paying off. Earning $800 in passive income is nice too. I’m planning to invest about $5,000 in Air Canada soon which will translate into even more passive income. 😀 One sector that really stood out in my portfolio was mining stocks. For example, both Silver Wheaton (SLW) and Goldcorp (G) were up more than 20% in February. Tech Resources (TCK.B) increased 50%. 🙂

With recent data pointing to the likelihood of a bear market on the horizon I think the smart move for working people right now with stable jobs is to look at new defensive investments such as fixed income or even cash. But at the same time, hold onto current investments that are expected to do well in the long run. 🙂

Random Useless Fact:


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03/04/2016 6:26 am

I really have not paid attention to the headlines of the rollercoaster market lately, except several retail stores are going to be closing shop soon (i.e. Sports Authority). There’s still money to be made, but you have to look harder to find it. I will need to look into the mining sector, I know people talked about that a couple years ago when gold increased dramatically.

03/04/2016 11:26 am
Reply to  Josh

“There’s still money to be made, but you have to look harder to find it.”

No you don’t. You only have to look harder if the only direction you believe in is ‘up’. The market (and stocks) also go down; learn how to short.

03/05/2016 5:22 pm

Strongly disagree, but each to their own.

Dividend Income Stocks
03/04/2016 10:24 am

Great post! Wanted to know your take on the mining sector. Since you had such a great run in mining stocks, are you planning to take some money off the table? It looks like mining stocks becoming overbought on short term. What is you investment horizon in that sector? Thanks!

03/04/2016 1:17 pm

You do know the saying; Never invest in builders, airliners and car manufacturers. Do you?
Keep up your great articles.

Cheers from Netherlands.

03/04/2016 3:49 pm

Air Canada is very cheap right now with a potential upside in the near future. Are you looking at AC.TO bond investments for fixed income?

03/05/2016 9:35 pm

I used to trade AC warrants way, way back in the day. Good for a few handfuls of quick cash. The bond seems reasonable enough.

Financial Underdog
03/15/2016 10:19 am

Nicely done, my friend.