Oct 262015
 

What a Liberal Government Means for Canadian InvestorsĀ ?

Last week the charismatic Justin Trudeau lead the Liberals to win the 2015 federal election. I’m sure his good looks has nothing to do his popularity and success. šŸ˜›

15-10-justin-trudeau-in-front-of-parliament

Justin pledged to make meaningful policy changes to the country that could benefit millions. But will his commitments help you? The jury is still out on the long-term effects, but here’s a TL;DR summary of what Trudeau’s government means for Canadian personal finance and investors in the short term.

The new Liberal majority government will…
HelpHinder
  • spenders
  • low-income seniors
  • stock market investors
  • students
  • most middle-class workers
  • savers
  • high-income households
  • single-income nuclear families

These are only generalizations. The rest of this post will explain individual policies that could affect your pocket book. Keep in mind that just because politiciansĀ promised something during their campaign, it doesn’t mean they will always follow through. Any of these policy changes below could be altered or cut completely going forward.

Borrowing To Invest. ?Ā Going back into Deficit.Ā 

According to the federal finance department, Canada’s government had a $1.9 billion surplus in the 2014-2015 fiscal year. šŸ™‚ But the new Liberal government under Trudeau plans to run a $10 billion deficit for each of the next 3 years, before balancing the budget again in 2019.

Going into more debt as a way to expand economic outputĀ isn’t necessarily a bad idea. $10 billion is peanuts relative to our $1,827 billion/year economy (0.6%.) Also, our national debt to GDP ratio is quite low by international standards, which means we can borrow money at ridiculously low costs. New 10 year Canadian government bonds are currently yieldingĀ 1.5% in annual interest.

After factoring in inflation, there might actually be no real cost to tax-payers, lol. šŸ™‚ Craig Alexander, the Vice President at the C.D. Howe Institute, said that despite digging deeper into debt, the debt to GDP ratio of Canada is still going to decrease over the next three years because our GDP is expected to increase as well. šŸ˜€

About a third of the new spending will go towards much-needed public transportation and infrastructure development and repairs. This means building more roads, highways, bridges, etc. This should improve the country’s productivity because gridlock and urban densification are causing major problems right now in large cities such as Toronto, Montreal, and parts of Vancouver. The other two-third of public spending is planned for social housing, seniors centers, and clean energy projects like solar and wind farms.

Due to more deficits and fiscal stimulus the Bank of Canada will be less likely to further cut interest rates for the time being.

What this means for you:Ā Invest your money. Historically the S&P/TSX Composite performed well during times of deficit spending. Below is a graph I put together using stock market returns and government budget information courtesy of the CBC.Ā During the two decades from 1995 to 2014 there have been 9 years where the government ran a deficit budget.Ā And the stock market had positive returns in 8 out of those 9 years.

15-10-budget-vs-stock-market-return-tsx

Economic stimulus increases employment and grows the economy so people and businesses feel more optimistic about their investments which tendĀ to be bullish for the financial markets. šŸ™‚ In particular I would consider investing in stocks or sectors that have exposure to financials, cannabis, industrial goods, construction, utilities, preferred shares, and green technology (solar panels, wind, etc.)

Goodbye annual $10,000 TFSA contribution limitĀ ?

The Tax-Free Savings Account annual contribution limit will revert back to $5,500 and increase in $500 increments based on inflation. This will make it harder for Canadians to saveĀ and won’t benefit the middle class. There’s a rumor that the TFSA only helps the rich get richer. But that’s baloney! The TFSA actually helps anyone who wants to save get richer. Here’s a table courtesy of the National Post which shows that many low and middle-income families still managed to max out their TFSA contribution rooms in 2013 when the limit was still $5,500.

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