Apr 122018
 

The ancient philosopher Seneca once said that, “luck is when opportunity meets preparation.” In other words, the more prepared we are the more chances we’ll have to take advantage of opportunities when they come our way. I believe this is true in many ways. But luck is probably a little more complicated than that.

I’ve recently come across a formula created by author Darren Hardy which breaks down luck into all its individual components. According to Hardy, anyone can become more lucky by focusing on this formula. 🙂

The Formula for Getting Lucky

Preparation + Attitude + Opportunity + Action = Getting Lucky

  • Preparation is all about personal growth – improving our skills, knowledge, expertise, and relationships – so we have the tools to take advantage of opportunities when they arise.
  • Having the right attitude or mindset is also important. Hardy says that, we can’t see what we don’t look for, and we can’t look for what we don’t believe in. Billionaire Richard Branson once said, “we are all lucky. If you live in a free society, you are lucky. Luck surrounds us every day; we are constantly having lucky things happen to us. I have not been any more lucky or unlucky than anyone else. The difference is when luck came my way, I took advantage of it.
  • Opportunity is the only part of the formula that we cannot control. Opportunity is when something positive happens that we didn’t plan for. The good news is that fortune comes to us everyday in many different ways, as Richard Branson said.
  • The last part of the getting lucky equation is taking action, or doing something about the situation that is presented to us. This is what separates self made millionaires from the average middle class citizen.

I can vouch for Hardy’s formula because I have seen it work for me. 🙂 I have been very lucky when it comes to my finances. Here are some moments from past blog posts where I expressed my acknowledgement and appreciation for my luck.

I always had a feeling that I was luckier than most people when it came to personal finance and wealth building. But I couldn’t figure out the cause before. Seeing the breakdown of Hardy’s luck formula really makes it clear. I was engineering my own luck all this time but just wasn’t aware of it until now, lol. I think one thing I can do to improve my luck even more is to focus on improving my preparation. 😀 We are surrounded by luck everyday if we look for it. I hope something lucky happened to you recently. 😉

 

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Random Useless Fact

There’s something not quite right with this family tree.

Mar 202018
 

Most stock market investors will find it nerve-racking to see their portfolios drop by 50% or more. But a large stock market crash is usually beneficial for our long term finances and we should welcome a bear market sooner rather than later or even not at all. 😀

How an early stock market crash creates more wealth

During a stock market correction, all the new money we invest will be used to purchase assets at cheaper levels. 🙂 These investments can have more time to compound and grow.

Even if we somehow could avoid a bear market for the next 30 years, [our] retirement wealth would likely be substantially better if we instead experienced an immediate bear market. ~Mark Hulbert

Most people my age will probably retire around 60 years old. That gives us about 30 more years to save for retirement. I found a chart below, courtesy of Mark Hulbert from MarketWatch that shows how the timing of a stock market crash affects the value of a retirement portfolio. It assumes a constant annual rate of return for 30 years, except a brief period where the stock market crashes similar to what happened in the 2007/2008 global financial crisis.

The red bar at the far left of the graph represents the portfolio’s value at the end of 30 years if a stock market crash happens right now in 2018. The far right is when it happens near the end of the 30 year period. In all cases plotted on the graph, the average annualized return for the 30 year period is the same, which is 5.9%. The only difference is when that market correction occurred along the way. 😉

As we can clearly see, our portfolio’s value 30 years from now will be highest ($4.3 million) if a downturn happens immediately, and lowest ($1.9 million) if it happens right before we retire. Wow! We will have $2.4 million more if a major bear market breaks out now, rather than later, even when the overall annualized investment return is the same. That’s a huge difference. 🙂

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Mar 142018
 

A revolving line of credit is a very useful tool. It can be used to pay down higher interest credit card debts, cover business expenses, or pay regular household bills. To use a line of credit (LOC) properly we should understand how it works, and how the interest is calculated.

At the time of set up a new LOC account will start with a balance of $0. Unlike a mortgage, car loan, or other amortized loan, the interest cost on a LOC is only calculated based on the amount of outstanding balance we use. This means if we don’t use the LOC we don’t pay any interest. 🙂

Interest Calculation

The interest rate on a LOC will typically range from 3% to 12% depending on the borrower’s credit history and their relationship with their banks. Interest is calculated on a daily basis on the amount of principal balance. For example, let’s say we borrow $1,000 on March 1st. Then on March 10th we pay down half of the debt, $500, and don’t do anything else for the rest of the month. In this case interest will be charged on the $1,000 for 10 days, and on $500 for the remaining 21 days of March. The interest amount will be accumulated and charged at the end of every month.

Using 5% interest rate as an example, we can calculate the cost of borrowing in the example above.

Interest cost from March 1st to March 10th = 0.05 x ($1000)*(10/365) = $1.37
Interest cost from March 11th to March 31st = 0.05 x ($500)*(21/365) = $1.44

We add the two amounts together to get $2.81. This is how much interest will be charged for the month of March. If we pay down the remaining $500 principal, and $2.81 interest balance on March 31st and do not borrow anymore, then there will be no interest charges in April.

Different Ways to Use LOCs

Since LOCs often have lower interest rates than credit cards we can transfer balance from a LOC to a credit card to save on interest costs. I also like to use my LOCs for emergency liquidity to pounce on a time sensitive investment opportunity or to cover a major car repair. I have also used a LOC in the past to pay down my student loans which was at a higher interest rate.

LOCs can be accessed through online banking. We can use it pay bills online, or send Interac e-Transfers. We can even order cheque books for our LOC accounts so we can write cheques to anyone. My regular chequing account only allows up to 10 free withdrawals every month. So sometimes I would use my LOC to cover some bill payments if I don’t want to exceed my chequing account limit. 😀

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Nov 242017
 

For long term investors, earning 5% to 7% annual return (after tax) is a suitable target to aim for. But this is difficult to pull off today. The current expected returns of the financial markets are extremely low by historical standards. Traditional asset classes such as stocks and bonds are generally overvalued now.

Stock Market Expected Return = 3.2%

The Shiller P/E ratio is currently about 31 for the S&P 500 stock market index. This is much higher than the historical average ratio of 16. The Shiller P/E ratio is based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years.  The inverse of the ratio (1/31) is how much the market is expected to earn for investors going forward.

Bond Market Expected Return = 2.3%

Here are some popular bond ETFs.

  • BMO Aggregate Bond Index ETF (ZAG) – Weighted Average Yield to Maturity = 2.34%
  • Canadian Aggregate Bond Index ETF (VAB) – Weighted Average Yield to Maturity = 2.28%
  • iShares Core Canadian Universe Bond Index ETF (XBB) – Weighted Average Yield to Maturity = 2.35%

As we can see, all their Avg YTMs are below 3%. The 10 year Canadian government bond is paying only 1.9% as of writing this post. 🙁

As a long term investor I don’t see the point of buying a bond that pays less than 2% interest when the Bank of Canada openly declared it wants to erode the Canadian dollar’s value by 2% a year. That effectively creates a projected negative real return on investment, 😮 ouch. This is why I stay away from ETFs like these which primarily hold low yielding government bonds. These funds aren’t necessarily bad investments. I’m just saying they’re not for me. We can find slightly higher yields in U.S. bonds, but not much better.

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Nov 092017
 

tl:dr. The answer is yes, Enbridge is a good buy. 🙂

Fair Market Value of Enbridge (ENB) 

Canadian pipeline company Enbridge is currently trading at around $47 per share. But based on Benjamin Graham’s formula for valuing stocks, which I’ve discussed before, the fair market value of Enbridge should be around $62.

Enbridge stock’s EPS is $1.96. The growth rate (g) is 10.5% a year according to Nasdaq.com. And long term high quality corporate bonds currently yield 4.1%, which represents the (Y) variable in the equation above. So we can see that (1.96x(8.5+2×10.5))x4.4/4.1 = $62

$62 per share is in line with what most analysts have determined as well. For example TD Equity Research recently posted a 12 month target of $62 for Enbridge. Here is the full research paper for anyone interested. This indicates that ENB may be oversold right now.

If Enbridge climbs to $62 per share that would be a 37% increase in total return. That’s pretty darn good! 😀 This is why I believe Enbridge is potentially oversold right now and is a good buy. 😀 Over the past decade ENB dividends have increased by 10% annually. Enbridge plans to continue growing its dividends by at least 10% every year through 2024.

Enbridge has one of the strongest economic moats of any company. Since pipelines require a lot of capital and regulatory approval, it’s not an industry where anyone can easily get in. Much like the railway industry, it’s pretty much an oligopoly without much competition.

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