Oct 192014
 

Overreaction leads to market turmoil

Over the last several weeks investors saw a 10% correction in the Canadian stock market, and a 9% correction in the U.S. Someone with a $100,000 portfolio invested in index funds could have just lost $10,000. Ouch. :| Is this market sell off justified or is it simply an overreaction to some recent bad economic news? First, let’s review what those news are.

  • The Canadian dollar has dropped to a 5 year low
  • Germany’s economy is weaker than expected
  • The rest of Europe is still in a mess of unemployment and stagnation
  • Last week the Athens Stock Exchange in Greece tumbled more than 6% in one trading day.
  • ISIS is causing havoc in the Middle East
  • Ebola fears

I currently own shares in the Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS.) It’s one of the largest companies in the country and has been around for over 180 years. Over the last month the price of this stock fell 8%. Instead of asking where the stock will go from here, we should instead be asking does all the recent bad news justify an 8% drop in value for one of the largest banks in Canada? My answer is absolutely not. :P It’s important to remember that when we buy a stock we are literally owning a part of that company. This means we, as stakeholders in Scotiabank, are still entitled to split the $6.5 billion profit that the company makes every year, regardless of how the price of BNS shares performs in the short term.

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A lower loonie will likely spur economic growth and will not hurt Scotiabank’s profitability. Europe’s stalled economy is nothing new and Canadian banks don’t lend that much to Europeans anyway. The media has succeeded in sensationalizing the threat of Ebola in the U.S. Yes it’s a terrible disease, and there’s an outbreak in Africa. But Ebola will not hinder businesses in the U.S. and Canada from continuing to rake in profits. Literally more Americans have been married to Kim Kardashian than have died from Ebola – both a terrible fate. :(

For the intrinsic value of Scotiabank to actually fall by 8% substantial circumstances would need to be met, such as major accounting fraud or a 10% national unemployment rate, that would legitimately jeopardize the company’s ability to make money. The recent news is relatively trivial so an 8% correction of BNS shares seems like an overreaction. Imagine selling our stocks now only to see the markets rebound next month and regain all its losses. :|

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Oct 162014
 

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What to do when the stock market goes on sale? A smart option would be to double up on some current positions. :) A couple months ago I bought 50 shares of Avigilon Corp for $25 each. However due to the negative sentiments in the overall financial markets recently AVO’s share price is down. But there’s no need to be alarmed because the company makes high definition security cameras and software. Now is the perfect opportunity for me to turn a current paper loss into a capital gain in the future! I noticed over the last week AVO has bounced around the $13 to $14 range but has never fallen below $13, which to me signals a strong support and a good time to average down. So earlier today I deposited $1,500 of savings into my brokerage account and picked up 100 more shares of AVO.TO. :)

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Sep 252014
 

With the recent pull back in the stock market I thought it would be a good time to add a couple of new stocks to my portfolio :) So earlier today I bought 13 shares of Time Warner Inc, (TWX) at $75.69/share, as well as 26 shares of Twenty-First Century Fox (FOXA) at $34.06/share. Both are U.S. companies so I purchased them inside my RRSP using Canadian currency.

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The part I enjoy most about investing is learning how businesses work. By looking through the financial statements and analyst’s reports on large media conglomerates I’ve learned how television programs get funded, how much actors and writers are paid, how advertising works, and many other interesting titbits.

Why Invest in Time Warner Inc

I wanted to invest more money into media and entertainment because this is a relatively stable sector with predictable earnings growth. After some thorough research I have decided to go with Time Warner Inc. Check out the impressive earnings per share (EPS) growth on this bad boy.

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Those are some pretty good numbers eh :) Time Warner is most well known by consumers to be the parent company of Warner Bros. Entertainment. But to investors Time Warner represents a collection of highly valued multimedia businesses and brands, not the least of which is HBO :D

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…Which includes HBO on Demand, HBO Entertainment, Cinemax, HBO International (Asia, Europe, Latin America,) etc. About 30% of all households in the U.S. with television service receive an HBO channel. HBO broadcasts in over 150 countries, covering about 114 million subscribers worldwide, wow 8-O

Time Warner also owns Turner Broadcasting System which includes Turner Sports, NASCAR Races, websites like NCAA.com, NBA.com, and other television channels like Cartoon Network, and Adult Swim. It also owns the CNN News Group, which includes CNN.com, CNN Money, and a bunch of other media outlets.

TWX’s total market capitalization is $64 billion, which is about twice as big as BCE (Bell Canada.) Below are some brands, tv shows, and logos that you may already know about, but perhaps didn’t know they belong to Time Warner, or was premiered through one of Time Warner’s distribution channels.

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Aug 072014
 

Someone I work with told me yesterday about a company that designs and manufactures video surveillance equipment and software called Avigilon (TSX:AVO)

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He said he knows a person who knows another person who has worked directly with AVO and thinks the stock is very undervalued right now. The company is expected to announce their quarterly financial results very soon. My co-worker believes AVO’s numbers will beat the street’s expectations and the stock will make a nice jump :D

Of course I’m a pragmatic investor who conducts careful and thorough research before buying any stock, so after my co-worker told me about it I decided to purchased 50 shares of AVO this morning at $25.64/share :D I just can’t pass up the opportunity to make a quick profit if he’s right and AVO does go up! The total purchase cost was $1,282. I had $1,000 of savings lying around so I used that, and borrowed the remaining balance on margin.

Initial Investment: $1,000.
Leveraged up to $1,282 ($25.64 x 50 shares)

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The company doesn’t pay a dividend but it is growing fast. AVO’s revenues are currently increasing at a rate of 60% a year. It has a pretty high P/E ratio of 39 x but it’s well justified given the company’s growth rate. Short term technical indicators are also promising which is favorable to a swing trade.

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I’m hoping to make at least $200 in profit on this trade which would be a nice 20% return.

Here are the reasons I think AVO is a good buy right now for me.

  • My co-worker is bullish on this stock
  • My very smart online friend, Phil from Ontario, likes this stock
  • Bullish momentum, MACD, and other technical events
  • Based in Vancouver, because I like to invest in local companies :D
  • The consensus from stock analysts is a strong buy.

Will I make some easy money out of this or will AVO disappoint and eventually lose its competitive edge like BlackBerry? Who knows. Acting on a stock tip is pure speculation (lots of risk) but life is short so let’s make it interesting ;)

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Random Useless Fact: 

This bathtub is cut from a single slab of quartz and costs $1 million. The block of the purest white rock crystal was discovered and quarried in Brazil.

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