Cash and Patience

Things are getting worse

Last month on this blog I warned the sell off in the stock market was likely going to get worse as the economy slows down. There’s a time and place to buy the dip. Now isn’t it. 😅 Inflation in the US came in hotter than expected on Friday, and over the last 24 hours the financial markets fell to levels we haven’t seen in years.

The Nasdaq is down 3.5% so far today.
The S&P 500 down 2.8%.
Even the Canadian index S&P/TSX Composite is 2.0% lower because energy stocks are falling.

 

But the worst pain is in the cryptocurrency space.

Bitcoin is down 15% over the last 24 hours.
Ethereum is down 19%, ouch.
And many altcoins are doing much worse.

Crypto platform Celsius has even halted all withdrawal due to liquidity concerns. This is terrible because it means clients of the Celsius network can’t take their money out. This is the risk of earning 7% annual yield on your cryptos.

Bonds aren’t safe either. The Canadian Universe Bond ETF (XBB.TO) is 1% lower today, which is a pretty big move for a bond ETF. And year to date it’s down 13%.

We don’t even have to mention the real estate market. Sales are down, and prices in all major cities are already falling. A 10% price correction in Vancouver and Toronto is likely the case if interest rates continue to climb this year.

So that means precious metals are up right? When the world is panicking, people have traditionally sought shelter in gold and other hard assets. But no. Not this time. Gold fell $44 today to $1,831/oz. This is a 2.4% decline. And silver is down 3.1% today, even worse.

 

No more safe havens, except cash

There is no safe place to put your money these days. So what can you do? Personally I’m building up a cash pile.

It may be difficult to do, but when there’s nothing good to buy, the best action may be to not take any action, lol. The market will eventually reward those who are patient. And just hording cash and not buying anything is a valid short-term strategy.

Yes, there is inflation to worry about. If you hold cash to consume, then your money is losing purchasing power to inflation. However, cash gains purchasing power relative to the stock market if stock prices fall. So holding cash can be bad if used for future consumption. But it’s actually good if used to buy future assets, as those asset valuations plunge. It just depends on what you plan to do with your cash.

It’s looking more likely now that a recession is coming in 2022. So building up some cash now, and being patient should help put you in a better position to buy high quality companies later. Not every business will survive the next recession, so it’s okay to be patient and wait a bit to see how things play out before making any major buying decisions. 🙂

 

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Random Useless Fact:

 

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jambr403
jambr403
06/14/2022 6:45 am

No where the hide? Pretty obvious you have been ignoring the energy sector.

AlW
AlW
06/14/2022 8:38 am

I’m coming into the same spot – with interest rates going up 3X the last 90 days that’s a 1.25% jump on any debt you had.

I’m looking at 3.7% prime rate on much of the loans I have out and thinking… jeez maybe I chop you down instead of sitting on this cash…

Any of the recent private mortgages I’ve invested in we’ve done at low loan to value ratios as everything is too frothy – we’d go to 80% LTV a few years ago and the past few I’ve done are 50-60% LTV so I’m taking into account a potential drop.

D Investor
D Investor
06/16/2022 9:38 am

I suspect the US is already technically in a recession..we’ll know when they report their numbers in a couple months. Crypto has capitulated, the NASDAQ is very close to capitulation with possibly the S&P to follow. Having some cash on hand to invest is a good move. If the markets continue to draw down, these asset purchases made will be some of the best returns in the coming years.

I’m not sure there are a lot of positive news catalysts at least for the next 3 months. Rates will continue to drop. Some positive news (if that happens) on the Ukraine war could spark an reversal.

Psychologically prepare yourself for a 30-40% peak to trough.

D Investor
D Investor
06/16/2022 9:40 am
Reply to  D Investor

Meant to say ‘rates will continue to rise’ 🙂

ddivadius
ddivadius
06/17/2022 9:15 am

You can get over 4% and even 4.5% on many 2, 3, 4 and 5 year GICs now (Motive, EQ, Oaken, etc..), so there is that option but you are stuck holding cash for longer than you may want to. 1 year GICs will likely move past 4% soon as well (some are currently at 3.8%).

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