Aug 042020
 

Past and future predictions

Last year I predicted rough waters for 2020’s economy, and suggested 4 investments to protect against uncertainty.

From November 2019

From a November 2019 blog post

How did those suggestions work out so far?

  • National real estate prices are +7% from last year.
  • Year to date my silver stocks (WPM.TO) is +79%.
  • Major telco stocks are down by about -3%.
  • XCB.TO, an ETF that tracks corporate bonds, is +8%.

An equal weighted basket of my picks would have earned a 23% return year to date. Not bad. 😀 Most index funds have only produced single digit returns during the same time.

What about for 2021?

Here are my top investment picks for the next 6 to 18 months.

  • North American real estate
  • Gold and silver
  • Large cap U.S. technology stocks

The rest of today’s post will attempt to unpack my reasons for choosing these investments. 🙂

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Jul 132020
 

The new normal

low interest rates will lead to greater economic expansion, but also more debt.

The year is 2030. Self driving cars are delivering fast food right to people’s front doors. China surpasses the U.S. as the world’s largest economy. Everyone uses mobile wallets instead of credit cards. Increasing wealth inequality has created constant social unrest. But one thing hasn’t changed. Interest rates continue to remain at rock bottom. You can still get a mortgage for less than 2.5%. 🙂

The economy has fallen into a deep pit of debt – so deep you can find Adele rolling in it. Policy makers around the world manufactured liquidity and bailed out corporations. Everyone has become accustomed to cheap money. If interest rates were to climb by just 1% then a third of mortgages will become delinquent.

 

Inflating money with impunity

Today in 2020 the United States government is already technically insolvent. But it can continue to make its debt payments because…

  • It has the ability to borrow money from a line of credit with no credit limit. And..
  • It can choose the interest rate at which it borrows thanks to the Federal Reserve.

From the total revenue collected by the U.S. federal government, 17% of it is used to pay interest on the debt it owes. If interest rates were to rise by just 1% then nearly a quarter of the federal revenue will have to go towards interest costs. That would be insane. Doing so would be the equivalent of someone with a $50,000 salary taking on a $500,000 mortgage at 2.5% interest rate. Nobody can qualify for a mortgage 10x their annual income. Even if the borrower thinks he can afford it, good luck finding a lender audacious enough to approve his loan application. Most mortgages are only 3 to 5 times one’s income.

Typically if a debtor starts to borrow more than he can adequately service – market forces will begin to push back. Lenders will either reject any new credit increase requests, or they will raise the interest rate to compensate for the debtor becoming a higher risk. But this doesn’t happen for governments with their own printing presses. The result: massive asset price inflation.

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Aug 012016
 

Stock Markets Reach Record Highs… Again 

Both the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 indexes have climbed to all time highs in late July. 🙂 But corporate earnings have been stagnant and economic growth remains weak. Restaurant sales have slowed. The U.S. economy only grew a disappointing 1.2% in the second quarter, well below expectations. 😕

So what’s producing so much excitement in the stock market? In short, I believe it’s largely caused by Negative Interest Rate Policies (NIRP). For example, in Europe the benchmark lending rate is negative 0.4%. Usually the bond issuer pays interest to the investor. But with negative rates, the investor pays the issuer. Currently about 1/3rd of the world’s government bonds are producing negative yields. Investors can’t get rich by holding these securities anymore. So in this kind of environment bonds really hold people down.?

As a result of NIRP, more investment capital has moved from the bond market to relatively stable stocks. These tend to be companies that operate gas pipelines, railways, utilities, telecommunication services, and other infrastructure that are recession resistant. Last year I wrote about how to easily make $75 of annual income without using any of my own savings by using leverage to buy shares of TransCanada Corp (TRP.)

16-08-financial-advice-dog-bonds-tennis-balls

I purchased TRP stocks for $42 per share. I mentioned at the time that analysts had an average price target of $57.50 per share. This doesn’t always happen, but sure enough TRP is trading at roughly $60 per share today. 😀 So not only am I making $75 a year in dividends, but I’ve also made $1,800 in unclaimed capital gains so far. 😉

In normal circumstances this kind of price movement in a large cap, blue-chip company wouldn’t happen. But due to a lack of viable investment alternatives, an influx of additional buyers has pushed up TRP and many other relatively safe stocks.

Increasing Valuations and Risk

Unfortunately, NIRP produces asset bubbles and may cause the markets to behave precariously. The chief executive of DoubleLine Capital, who oversees more than $100 billion in assets, recently said that many asset classes look frothy and his firm continues to hold gold, which has also climbed due to NIRP.  At the end of July gold reached $1,350 per ounce, the highest monthly close in years! Stock investors have entered a “world of uber complacency,” said Jeffrey to the media. “The stock markets should be down massively but investors seem to have been hypnotized that nothing can go wrong. Continue reading »

Feb 062015
 

How Money is Created

For a country’s GDP to grow there needs to be economic expansion, which means people must earn and spend more money. But in order for additional money to exist somebody has to create it first. That’s where you and I come in. 🙂 Money is created whenever we borrow money from a bank. When we take out a $1,000 loan, for example, $1,000 of bank credit is instantly created which we can cash out and spend, which adds $1,000 into the existing currency supply in the economy. This $1,000 did not exist in the world yesterday, but it does now because we created the money by borrowing it into existence. This increases the country’s nominal economic output. Nice. 🙂  Most of the world’s money today is created this way. Even though we are now $1,000 in debt, the nation overall is better off because our extra spending just becomes income for other people.

15-02-paying-debt-not-today-got-monetary-policies

The opposite phenomenon can also happen. If we pay off our $1,000 loan then that money would cease to circulate in the economy and be destroyed forever through debt cancellation. This is deflationary and is what every Central Banker in the world wants to avoid. 😕

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Oct 132014
 

The trickle down effect

It has been said that if we cut taxes for the rich and help profitable businesses make even more money then the economic benefits would trickle down from the top to the rest of us. But for many in the working class this has simply not been the case. 🙁

14-10-trickle-down-treading-water

14-10-household-income-us treading water The top 1% have never been wealthier, but the rest of us still face many financial roadblocks. Both consumers and governments of all levels are still carrying a lot of debt. However real incomes in the U.S. have been slowly declining since 2008. Up here in Canada our debt-to-income ratio is near an all time high.

We often receive conflicting messages from policy makers. The Canadian Central Bank is keeping rates low to encourage consumers to spend and stimulate the economy. But at the same time it says that rising consumer debt is a major risk in this country. That’s right, patronize consumers for their debilitating debts when the Central Bank is responsible for creating the cheap money in the first place. Sound logic, Mr. Poloz. 😛

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