Nov 062014
 

How Midterm Elections Affect the Stock Market

Imagine if you knew an investment strategy where the historical odds are almost 100% in your favor! :D Well here’s how. :) Since 1942 there has been 18 midterm elections, not counting the one that just happened earlier this week. Every single time the S&P 500 has gone up after one year following each of those elections. The average stock market gain over the 12 month period following all 18 elections was 16%. :) If we only look at what happened after just 6 months following the midterm elections, once again 18 out of 18 times the S&P 500 rallied, and on average by 15%. Chart below for details. (source)

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As we can see, the chart shows the percentage change of the stock market index after 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months following each midterm election. The only negative change is after the 3 month period following the 2002 midterm when the S&P 500 dropped 8.7% as shown in brackets. Every other time the stock market has gone up. :) This indicator has been very consistent because regardless of which party wins in the house or the senate the results of a midterm election adds certainty to the political landscape. And certainty gives confidence to the financial markets. :)

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Oct 162014
 

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What to do when the stock market goes on sale? A smart option would be to double up on some current positions. :) A couple months ago I bought 50 shares of Avigilon Corp for $25 each. However due to the negative sentiments in the overall financial markets recently AVO’s share price is down. But there’s no need to be alarmed because the company makes high definition security cameras and software. Now is the perfect opportunity for me to turn a current paper loss into a capital gain in the future! I noticed over the last week AVO has bounced around the $13 to $14 range but has never fallen below $13, which to me signals a strong support and a good time to average down. So earlier today I deposited $1,500 of savings into my brokerage account and picked up 100 more shares of AVO.TO. :)

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Aug 072014
 

Someone I work with told me yesterday about a company that designs and manufactures video surveillance equipment and software called Avigilon (TSX:AVO)

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He said he knows a person who knows another person who has worked directly with AVO and thinks the stock is very undervalued right now. The company is expected to announce their quarterly financial results very soon. My co-worker believes AVO’s numbers will beat the street’s expectations and the stock will make a nice jump :D

Of course I’m a pragmatic investor who conducts careful and thorough research before buying any stock, so after my co-worker told me about it I decided to purchased 50 shares of AVO this morning at $25.64/share :D I just can’t pass up the opportunity to make a quick profit if he’s right and AVO does go up! The total purchase cost was $1,282. I had $1,000 of savings lying around so I used that, and borrowed the remaining balance on margin.

Initial Investment: $1,000.
Leveraged up to $1,282 ($25.64 x 50 shares)

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The company doesn’t pay a dividend but it is growing fast. AVO’s revenues are currently increasing at a rate of 60% a year. It has a pretty high P/E ratio of 39 x but it’s well justified given the company’s growth rate. Short term technical indicators are also promising which is favorable to a swing trade.

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I’m hoping to make at least $200 in profit on this trade which would be a nice 20% return.

Here are the reasons I think AVO is a good buy right now for me.

  • My co-worker is bullish on this stock
  • My very smart online friend, Phil from Ontario, likes this stock
  • Bullish momentum, MACD, and other technical events
  • Based in Vancouver, because I like to invest in local companies :D
  • The consensus from stock analysts is a strong buy.

Will I make some easy money out of this or will AVO disappoint and eventually lose its competitive edge like BlackBerry? Who knows. Acting on a stock tip is pure speculation (lots of risk) but life is short so let’s make it interesting ;)

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Random Useless Fact: 

This bathtub is cut from a single slab of quartz and costs $1 million. The block of the purest white rock crystal was discovered and quarried in Brazil.

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Jan 212014
 

Awhile ago I started a swing trade with Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan. I used $600 to purchase about $2,000 worth of POT shares using leverage. Unfortunately some time after my purchase, Russia’s Uralkali got out of the potash cartel which sent the price of potash lower, which of course meant all potash producers around the world had their profits squeezed. Potash is an alkaline potassium compound used in fertilizer.

When I initially bought 45 shares, POT was trading at $43.74 CAD per share. It dropped down to about $30 per share when Uralkali pulled out. But today POT has recovered a bit and is trading at about $37. Instead of selling and taking my losses, I’ve decided to double down on it :) So earlier today I bought another 45 shares at $36.90 each, doubling my total holding to 90 shares, wow 8-O

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I should have pulled the trigger earlier but I’m just glad I got in today before the price can get any higher :) Thanks to my new trade I’ve averaged down my ACB from the initial $43.74/share to $40.32/share :D

I got the idea to increase my position in POT after reading PC’s post about Potash Corp’s recent performance. It’s risky to invest a second time into a company that is worth less than before. There’s a very real possibility for the price to continue falling and I could lose my new money as well my previous investment (o_o) But risky is my middle name and I like to go big or go home :P

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With a P/E ratio of 15.2x I feel POT is currently at reasonable valuations. It’s also a low cost producer of nitrogen, phosphate, and other chemicals needed for industrial use. Farmers will always need fertilizer as long as there are people in the world, and I think POT is in a great position to capitalize on that market. Also, the 4.09% dividend yield is a nice bonus :)

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Random useless fact: If you find a lost driver’s license, you can drop it in any mailbox and the Postal Service will deliver it back to the owner.

Aug 192013
 

Earlier in the Spring I blogged about how undervalued commodity stocks were and hinted that it could be one of the best trading opportunities of the year :) So I explained how I invested $2,000 into some stocks and plan to sell when I can make at least $1,000 in profit. Well earlier today I sold all those stocks, and made a $1,175 return, exceeding my goal (゜∀゜)dancing-tweetie-bird

April 19th 2013
Initial Investment: $2,000
Bought: 50 shares of  G.TO at $28.84 = $1442
Bought: 100 shares of  SLW.TO at $24.16 = $2416
Bought: 100 shares of  SU.TO at $28.205 = $2820.50
Total money spent buying stocks: $6,678.50
Had to borrow $4,678.50 on margin

Today, Monday, Aug 19th, 2013
Sold: 50 shares of  G.TO at $32.51$1625.50
Sold: 100 shares of  SLW.TO at $27.80$2780
Sold: 100 shares of  SU.TO at $35.325 = $3532.50
Total money acquired from selling stocks: $7,938
Dividends earned during swing trade period: $42

Gross profit: = $1,301.50

Expenses:
Commission: 6 trades x $9.99 = $59.94
Interest on $4,678.50 margin loan @4.25%/yr = $66.28
Total Expenses: $126.22

Net profit = Gross Profit – Expenses = $1,175.28 (59% return)

Another successful swing trade is in the can 8-) Woohoo! That was a fun one :D Let’s analyze… Continue reading »